When and how will electric cars take over?

The slow way

This is how electric vehicles are slowly becoming more accepted. Electric vehicles become more familiar to drivers as more people drive them. They can ride in or drive a friend’s car. The range doesn’t cause them as much stress as they thought. Their neighbors also tell them that electric cars are about half the price of gas cars. Electric cars can also be a lot of fun to drive, even though they are not something people have ever considered seriously. There is nothing like that low-end torque!

The cars themselves are also improving as people learn more about them and accept them. They are becoming more affordable and offer a wider range. This makes them more affordable and more widely available, which in turn increases their adoption.

It takes between 10-20 years for 30% of all new vehicle sales to be converted to electric vehicles.

The fastest path

This is the same cycle, but there is significant customer demand that drives a shortage in electric cars. Everyone wants one so every manufacturer makes as many as possible. Large vehicles and SUVs are not wanted on car dealership lots. Electric cars are still improving on the same schedule but people are more inclined to purchase them even before these improvements.

It takes 10 years for 50% of all new cars to be converted to electric vehicles.

Is it faster to go slow or fast?

The market forces that will decide which route we take are $5 per gallon gasoline and the dollar.

The cost of driving a car suddenly doubles if gasoline costs $5 per gallon. Electric cars will be one-eighth as expensive to operate per mile instead of one-fourth. Drivers are more likely to be interested in electric cars if driving 1500 miles per year costs $50 rather than $375. Drivers will never go back to gasoline if they switch to electric vehicles.

Personally, I believe the slow route is more likely. Oil companies know that gasoline can’t go to $5/gallon, and that this will not trigger a market shift. They’d be destroying their revenue stream for ever. This is why gasoline prices have been more stable over crude oil prices in recent years.



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