Will electric cars replace those with internal combustion engines?

EV’s market share is certain to grow but its future prominence will depend upon three key factors.

  • Carbon emissions – Well-to-wheel analysis done at MIT in ’08 (http://web.mit.edu/evt/summary_wtw.pdf) showed that CO2 emissions per km driven by EVs (BEV in the MIT chart) was less than 50% of that by ICEs (116 g CO2/km by EV vs. 252 g CO2/km by ICE). This analysis assumes assumptions about the source of electricity generation (i.e. mix of coal vs. natural gas vs. nuclear / renewables), and fuel efficiency of ICEs. The source of electricity used to power EVs will determine if they have a smaller carbon footprint than ICEs. There is ongoing innovation in improving efficiency of ICEs as well as the use of advanced fuels that have a lower carbon footprint than regular gasoline. Diesel engines emit carbon dioxide within 10% of EVs (127g CO2/km vs 116g CO2/km for EV in the MIT study).
  • Economics – EVs are not economically viable for customers without subsidy because of the moderate gasoline price (less that $3/gallon). The economics of EVs will improve if one assumes that the conventional fuel price will rise significantly over the medium-to-long-term. The battery cost, which is a large part of the overall cost for EVs, continues to fall with technological innovation and scale.
  • Infrastructure – While most people don’t drive more than 40 miles per week, range anxiety is a key factor in deciding whether to purchase an EV. Although plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may be an option to reduce range anxiety, it comes with additional costs and complexity. The future batteries will be more efficient, but still have a limited range. Although businesses offering fast charging stations or battery swapping will provide infrastructure for EVs, this may take longer than expected.

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