Are electric cars going to replace gas cars?

It’s very simple to see that they won’t.

There are currently more than 1 billion cars in existence around the globe. According to my knowledge, the current production rate for cars is 75 million per year. If all car manufacturers stopped making ICE cars tomorrow (which they will not) and started making EVs at the rate they did before making ICE cars (which they absolutely cannot do), it would take 15 years to produce enough cars to replace all existing ICE cars. EVs account for about 1% of global car sales. It will take at least a decade to replace all ICE cars.

The average car in Germany is 8 years old. Pre-owned cars are typically priced at around 12,000 USD. It is not just about making millions of cars. It is also about making them affordable enough that anyone can afford them. Right now, I own a car that cost me 5,000 US dollars four years ago. Even if Tesla decided to reduce the Model 3’s price to 25,000 USD I could not afford it. It would be five to six years before I could afford it.

Cars aren’t like smartphones. They are more expensive and live longer. Imagine houses: What would it take for someone to invent a revolutionary housing technology?


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